You call the season
Open a week and tap your winners. Check the updated odds, then return to the same week. Tap a selected team again to undo.
Select teams to win out
Lock a team to win every remaining game. Teams with any picked loss are disabled. Deselecting a team removes its automatic picks; your individual picks stay.
All 16 teams, sorted by ESPN FPI odds. Equal odds count unpicked outcomes equally; ESPN weights them using FPI forecasts. Your picks lock the selected results in both columns.
Championship matchups
Most likely pairs under your picks and the FPI forecasts. Unresolved final tiebreakers use the same equal-share assumption as the odds table.
Official rules & calculation notes
Uses the Big 12's published 16-team policy labeled 2024–Present. Conference winning percentage determines the top two; ties proceed through head-to-head, common conference opponents, highest-placed common opponent groups, conference schedule strength, eligible overall wins, final SportSource rating, and coin toss. A team sweeping all tied teams advances even without a full round robin. After seeding a team, the remaining tie restarts.
Final SportSource ratings and coin tosses are unknown. After applying all available official tiebreakers, scenarios still unresolved are split equally among the remaining distinct possible championship matchups. The table shows a single estimated percentage under that assumption; this is not an official prediction of future SportSource ratings. The two qualification spots are preserved in every scenario. Results are exact at 15 or fewer unpicked games; otherwise each view samples 12,000 seasons, with a worst-case 95% sampling margin around ±0.9 percentage points. A sampled zero is not proof of elimination. Game outcomes are modeled independently. Picking a winner conditions the remaining season; it does not retrain FPI.
All regular-season games are included because overall wins are a tiebreaker. The 2026 imported schedule has one FCS opponent per team at most. Postseason games are excluded. Forecasts and results are shared snapshots updated after the morning FPI update and in the evening; load saved data to pick up the latest published version. If any necessary forecast is missing, the weighted table is withheld.
Independent fan tool. Picks save on this device. ESPN results and FPI matchup forecasts; not betting odds. Morning checks start at 8:00 AM Eastern and repeat every 30 minutes through 11:00 AM until today’s FPI version is imported. An evening results check runs around 7:17 PM Eastern. Schedules may be delayed. Only changed data or a newly confirmed FPI version is published. Load latest saved data reads the shared snapshot without contacting ESPN; failed loads keep your last usable data.